Why does migration data matter for property investors?

Migration data shows where people are moving before price data catches up, so it can signal where housing demand is heading. It works best as one input alongside jobs, local business investment, rents and price trends.

Where are Australians moving to in 2026?

According to the Regional Movers Index discussed in the episode, the Sunshine Coast, Greater Geelong and Lake Macquarie–Maitland remain top destinations. Wodonga recorded Victoria's strongest annual net migration growth rate, and Hobart ranks among Tasmania's fastest-growing destinations.

What is the Regional Movers Index?

The Regional Movers Index is a free quarterly report from the Regional Australia Institute and the Commonwealth Bank. It tracks people moving between capital cities and regional areas, and shows which regions are gaining the most movers.

Can migration data be misleading for property investors?

Yes. Toowoomba posted a 236% jump in net inflows from capital cities, but off a small base. Wagga Wagga grew home values close to 19% in a year despite flat or negative net migration. Always check volumes and other drivers.

How do I tell if a growth region is worth investing in?

Check whether growth is broad-based rather than reliant on one project or employer, whether local businesses are expanding and hiring, and whether price growth has started to confirm the migration trend.

Back to Podcast

Market InsightsOctober 2026

Where People are Moving Next: Property Investing 2026

City-to-regional migration is at its highest level on record, and it often signals where property demand is heading before prices move. Ben Plohl breaks down where Australians are actually moving, two regions where migration and price data already agree, where the data can mislead you, and three checks to run on any region.

0:00

In this episode

Why migration data is one of the most underused tools for property investors

Why the move to the regions is structural, not a pandemic hangover

The established favourites: Sunshine Coast, Greater Geelong and the Lower Hunter

Deep dives on Albury-Wodonga and Hobart

Where migration data can mislead you: Toowoomba and Wagga Wagga

The watchlist: Broome, Townsville and the NSW Mid North Coast

Three checks to run on any region that looks hot

The big picture

For every 10 people moving from a capital city to a regional area, only about 8 make the reverse trip, the widest gap since tracking began. The trend has held through COVID, inflation, housing pressure and a tight labour market. Sydney and Melbourne still send the most movers, but Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide now send a growing share.

The established favourites

Sunshine Coast: the consistent number one, holding around 8 to 9% of all net regional migration nationally. The safest pick, and usually the most expensive.

Greater Geelong: a steady top 3 performer. Its share has eased slightly, but volumes remain strong.

Lake Macquarie–Maitland (Lower Hunter): Lake Macquarie draws a steady top 5 share of capital city movers. Maitland records one of the highest regional-to-regional inflows, largely people priced out of Newcastle and Sydney.

Deep dive: Albury-Wodonga

Wodonga posted the strongest annual net migration growth rate of any local government area in Victoria. The driver is infrastructure, not lifestyle: transport, education, health and defence projects creating local jobs. Commonwealth Bank lending data shows local businesses expanding and hiring to meet demand, and Cotality data shows double-digit annual growth in home values in the Wodonga Alpine region.

Deep dive: Hobart

Hobart ranks among Tasmania's fastest-growing migration destinations, part of a shift towards cooler, more affordable southern regions. Outer Hobart pockets have posted some of the strongest annual price growth of any capital city region recently.

Where the data can mislead you

Toowoomba posted a 236% jump in net inflows from capital cities, but off a small base. The index needs only 50 net migrants a year for a region to qualify, so check the volume, not just the growth rate.

Wagga Wagga had flat or negative net migration, yet home values grew close to 19% in a year, driven by local jobs, construction and rental pressure.

The lesson: migration data is one input, not a scorecard.

The watchlist

Broome, Townsville and the NSW Mid North Coast are emerging destinations, but too early to call proven.

Three checks for any hot region

Is the growth broad-based? Several sectors moving at once beats reliance on a single mine or employer.

Is local business investment following the population? Businesses expanding and hiring suggests growth is sticking.

Has price growth started confirming the migration data? If not, there's more upside if it plays out, and more uncertainty that it will.

The move this week

Before your next purchase, check the latest Regional Movers Index the way you'd check a suburb's vacancy rate. It's free and quarterly. Just don't stop at the headline number.

Key quote

"Migration first, prices follow." — Ben Plohl

Regional Movers Index, Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank: https://regionalaustralia.org.au/

Book a time to chat with Ben or the BFP team: [https://bfpproperty.com/contact]

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